Transition to a Circular Bioeconomy in the Sugar Agro-Industry: Predictive Modeling to Estimate the Energy Potential of By-Products

The linear economy model in the sugar agroindustry has generated multiple impacts due to the underutilization of by-products and reliance on fossil fuels. Through predictive modeling and anaerobic digestion, the circular bioeconomy of sugarcane biomass enables the generation of biogas and electricity in an environmentally sustainable manner. This theoretical-applied research proposes a predictive model to estimate the energy potential of by-products such as bagasse, vinasse, molasses, and filter cake, based on historical production data and validated technical coefficients. The model uses milled sugarcane as a baseline and projects its energy conversion under three scenarios through 2030. In its most favorable configuration, the model estimates energy production of up to 15.5 billion Nm³ of biogas in Cuba and 9.9 billion in Peru. The model’s architecture includes four residual biomass flows and bioenergy conversion factors applicable to electricity generation. It is validated using national statistical series from 2000 to 2018 and presents relative errors below 5%. Cuba, with a peak of over 13,000 GWh of electricity from bagasse, and Peru, with a stable output between 6500 and 7500 GWh, reflect the highest and lowest projected energy utilization, respectively. Bagasse accounts for over 60% of the total estimated energy contribution. This modeling tool is fundamental for advancing a transition toward a circular economy, as it helps mitigate environmental impacts, improve agroindustrial waste management, and guide sustainable policies in sugarcane-based contexts.