Statistical Downscaling Based Correction of the HadGEM2 Family General Circulation Models: Rimac Basin, Peru

Miguel A. Astorayme, Ronald R. Gutiérrez

Producción científica: Capítulo del libro/informe/acta de congresoContribución a la conferenciarevisión exhaustiva

1 Cita (Scopus)

Resumen

Lima holds ~30% of Peru's entire population. It is listed among the 30 most populated cities of the world, and since the past decade, it faces an increasing water stress. In this context, evaluating future precipitation patterns in the Rimac Basin, which runs along Lima and provides for 60% of the drinking water to its population, is crucial. In this paper, we use statistical downscaling (SD) to correct and evaluate 22 years (Set/1982-Ago/2004) of historical daily precipitation data from the HadGEM2 general circulation models (GCM) to assess a near future time frame (Dec/2015-Nov/2045) being centered in 2030. To perform SD, we apply quantile-mapping techniques that uses a non-parametric transformation function being represented by the Bernoulli-Gamma mixture probabilistic model from eight ground weather stations. HadGEM2 models were evaluated by considering two model efficiency metrics, namely: bias and relative root mean squared error (RRSME). Our results show that the bias and RRSME were reduced to the ranges 0.7-1.6 units and-2.3%-8.3%, respectively. Likewise, we determined that the HadHGEM2-ES and HadHGEM2-CC models performed markedly better during dry and wet seasons.

Idioma originalInglés
Título de la publicación alojadaWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Subtítulo de la publicación alojadaGroundwater, Sustainability, and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
EditoresChristopher N. Dunn, Brian Van Weele
EditorialAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Páginas545-556
Número de páginas12
ISBN (versión digital)9780784480618
DOI
EstadoPublicada - 2017
Evento17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017 - Sacramento, Estados Unidos
Duración: 21 may. 201725 may. 2017

Serie de la publicación

NombreWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017: Groundwater, Sustainability, and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017

Conferencia

Conferencia17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
País/TerritorioEstados Unidos
CiudadSacramento
Período21/05/1725/05/17

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