TY - GEN
T1 - Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central
AU - Mauricio, Christian
AU - Suclupe, Jose
AU - Milla, Marco
AU - De Castilla, Carlos L.
AU - Kuyeng, Karim
AU - Rodriguez, Rodolfo
AU - Scipion, Danny Eddy
AU - Chau, Jorge
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 IEEE.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.
AB - Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.
KW - LSTM
KW - Maximum likelihood
KW - multi-step prediction
KW - OPTUNA
KW - VMD
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85189505494&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615
DO - 10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85189505494
T3 - Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon
BT - ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023
Y2 - 5 December 2023 through 7 December 2023
ER -