TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk identification and assessment with the fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP method in oil and gas projects under uncertainty
AU - Khalilzadeh, Mohammad
AU - Shakeri, Hedieh
AU - Zohrehvandi, Shakib
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Oil and gas projects are integrated with a huge number of uncertainties due to their unique characteristics, complexities and uncertain environment. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the main risks of this type of projects based on the PMBOK guide under sanctions and uncertain conditions. The main risks were identified through document analysis which were finally reduced to 17 risks through expert judgments using fuzzy Delphi method. The experts included 15 people with more than ten years' practical experience in the oil and gas projects. The results of confirmatory factor analysis confirmed all risks in terms of statistical population. Then, the interrelations between risks and their importance weights were determined by using hybrid fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP technique. The final results showed that political and economic sanctions have the highest weight, followed by the attraction of foreign investors and the lack of regional infrastructure.
AB - Oil and gas projects are integrated with a huge number of uncertainties due to their unique characteristics, complexities and uncertain environment. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the main risks of this type of projects based on the PMBOK guide under sanctions and uncertain conditions. The main risks were identified through document analysis which were finally reduced to 17 risks through expert judgments using fuzzy Delphi method. The experts included 15 people with more than ten years' practical experience in the oil and gas projects. The results of confirmatory factor analysis confirmed all risks in terms of statistical population. Then, the interrelations between risks and their importance weights were determined by using hybrid fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP technique. The final results showed that political and economic sanctions have the highest weight, followed by the attraction of foreign investors and the lack of regional infrastructure.
KW - Fuzzy DEMANTEL-ANP
KW - Fuzzy delphi
KW - Project risk management
KW - Qualitative risk analysis
KW - Risk identification
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85105625427&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.147
DO - 10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.147
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85105625427
SN - 1877-0509
VL - 181
SP - 277
EP - 284
JO - Procedia Computer Science
JF - Procedia Computer Science
T2 - 2020 International Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems - International Conference on Project MANagement and International Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies, CENTERIS/ProjMAN/HCist 2020
Y2 - 21 October 2020 through 23 October 2020
ER -