Predicting reach-specific properties of fluvial terraces to guide future fieldwork. A case study for the Late Quaternary River Allier (France) with the FLUVER2 model

Numerical models have not yet systematically been used to predict properties of fluvial terrace records in order to guide fieldwork and sampling. This paper explores the potential of the longitudinal profile model FLUVER2 to predict testable field properties of the relatively well-studied, Late Quaternary Allier system in France. For the Allier terraces an overlapping 14C and U-series chronology as well as a record of 10Be erosion rates exist. The FLUVER2 modelling exercise is focused on the last 50 ka of the upper Allier reach because for this location and period the constraints of the available dating techniques are tightest. A systematic calibration based on terrace occurrence and thicknesses was done using three internal parameters related to (1) the sediment erodibility; (2) the sediment transport distance; and (3) the sediment supply derived from the surrounding landscape. As external model inputs, the best available, reconstructed, tectonic, climatic and base-level data were used. Calibrated model outputs demonstrate a plausible match with the existing fluvial record. Validation of model output was done by comparing the modelled and measured timing of aggradation and incision phases for the three locations. The modelled range of landscape erosion rates showed a reasonably good match with existing erosion rate estimates derived from 10Be measurements of fluvial sands. The quasi-validated model simulation was subsequently used to make new testable predictions about the timing and location of aggradation and erosion phases for three locations along the Allier river. The validated simulations predict that along the Allier, reach-specific dynamics of incision and aggradation, related to the variations in sediment supply by major tributaries, cause relevant differences in the local fluvial terrace stratigraphy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.