Limits to Growth or Growth to the Limits? Trends and Projections for Potatoes in China and Their Implications for Industry

While output for potatoes in China averaged nearly 73 million metric tonnes in 2008-2010, the trends for production, area, and yield have been far more volatile than suggested in earlier studies. A new set of estimated growth rates for potato production in China during the last five decades based on FAO times series data found that periods of rapid expansion were then followed by ones of stagnation and decline. Although increases in potato output have been impressive, China's share of both regional and global production has declined in recent years as a result. This paper analyses these and other dimensions to the evolution of potato production in China during the last half century by synthesizing previous research before reassessing alternative future projections, highlighting opportunities for industry, and identifying some key topics for future research.