TY - JOUR
T1 - Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
AU - NTA Network
AU - Lee, Ronald
AU - Mason, Andrew
AU - Amporfu, Eugenia
AU - An, Chong Bum
AU - Bixby, Luis Rosero
AU - Bravo, Jorge
AU - Bucheli, Marisa
AU - Chen, Qiulin
AU - Comelatto, Pablo
AU - Coy, Deidra
AU - D'Albis, Hippolyte
AU - Donehower, Gretchen
AU - Dramani, Latif
AU - Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia
AU - Gal, Robert I.
AU - Holz, Mauricio
AU - Huong, Nguyen Thi Lan
AU - Kluge, Fanny
AU - Ladusingh, Laishram
AU - Lee, Sang Hyop
AU - Lindh, Thomas
AU - Ling, Li
AU - Long, Giang Thanh
AU - Maliki,
AU - Matsukura, Rikiya
AU - McCarthy, David
AU - Mejía-Guevara, Iván
AU - Mergo, Teferi
AU - Miller, Tim
AU - Mwabu, Germano
AU - Narayana, M. R.
AU - Nor, Vanndy
AU - Norte, Gilberto Mariano
AU - Ogawa, Naohiro
AU - Olaniyan, Olanrewaju Ademola
AU - Olivera, Javier
AU - Oosthuizen, Morne
AU - Phananiramai, Mathana
AU - Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza
AU - Racelis, Rachel H.
AU - Rentería, Elisenda
AU - Rice, James Mahmud
AU - Sambt, Joze
AU - Seçkin, Aylin
AU - Sefton, James
AU - Soyibo, Adedoyin
AU - Tovar, Jorge A.
AU - Tung, An Chi
AU - Turra, Cassio M.
AU - Urdinola, B. Piedad
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright 2014 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.
PY - 2014/10/10
Y1 - 2014/10/10
N2 - Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
AB - Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84907814963
U2 - 10.1126/science.1250542
DO - 10.1126/science.1250542
M3 - Article
C2 - 25301626
AN - SCOPUS:84907814963
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 346
SP - 229
EP - 234
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6206
ER -