El Nin±o - Related precipitation variability in Perú

The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the commonly used El Nin±o regions and precipitation for 44 stations in Perú is documented for 1950-2002. Linear lag correlation analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST anomalies in El Nin±o 1+2, Nin±o 3.4, and Nin±o 4 regions are available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Nin±o regions is routinely available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the El Nin±o 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Nin±o 1+2 region is less reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El Nin±o 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Nin±o 1+2 region is discussed.