Comparative Analysis of Slope Stability Prediction for Earth Dams Using Response Surface Method, Statistical Models, and ANN

Understanding slope stability is crucial for effective risk management and prevention of slides. Some deterministic approaches based on limit-equilibrium and numerical methods have been proposed for the assessment of the safety factor (SF) for a given soil slope. However, for risk analyses of slides of earth dams, a range of SFs is required due to uncertainties associated with soil strength properties as well as slope geometry. Recently, several studies have demonstrated the efficiency of artificial neural network (ANN) models in predicting the SF of natural and artificial slopes. Nevertheless, such techniques operate as black-box models, prioritizing predictive accuracy without suitable interpretability. Alternatively, multivariate polynomial regression (MVR) models offer a pragmatic interpretability strategy by combining the analysis of variance with a response surface methodology. This approach overcomes the difficulties associated with the interpretability of the black-box models, but results in limited accuracy when the relationship between independent and dependent variables is highly nonlinear. In this study, two models for a quick assessment of slope SF in earth dams are proposed considering the MVR and the ANN models. Initially, a synthetic dataset was generated considering different soil properties and slope geometries. Then, both models were evaluated and compared using unseen data. The results are also discussed from a geotechnical point of view, showing the impact of each input parameter on the assessment of the SF. Finally, the accuracy of both models was measured and compared using a real-case database. The obtained accuracy was 78% for the ANN model and 72% for the MVR one, demonstrating a great performance for both proposed models. The efficacy of the ANN model was also observed through its capacity to reduce false negatives (a stable prediction when it is not), resulting in a model more favorable to safety assessment.