Development and Validation of a Methodology for Predicting Fuel Consumption and Emissions Generated by Light Vehicles Based on Clustering of Instantaneous and Cumulative Vehicle Power

In the global context, transportation contributes 26% of the total CO2 emissions, with land transport responsible for 92% of the emissions within the sector. Given this significant contribution to climate change, it is crucial to quantify vehicular impacts to implement effective mitigation strategies. This study introduces an innovative method for predicting fuel consumption and emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides in vehicles, based on instantaneous vehicle-specific power (VSP) and mean accumulated power. VSP is a parameter that measures a vehicle's power in relation to its mass, providing an indicator of the efficiency with which the vehicle converts fuel into motion. This indicator is particularly useful for assessing how vehicles utilize their energy under different driving conditions and how this affects their fuel consumption and emissions. Using data collected from 10 vehicles over 2000 h and covering altitudes from 0 to 4000 m above sea level in Ecuador, the method not only improved the accuracy of consumption predictions, reducing the margin of error by up to 10% at high altitudes, but also provided a detailed understanding of how altitude affects both consumption and emissions. The precision of the new method was notable, with a standard deviation of only 0.25 L per 100 km, allowing for reliable estimates under various operational conditions. Interestingly, the study revealed an average increase in fuel consumption of 0.43 L per 1000 m of altitude gain, while CO2 emissions showed a significant reduction from 260.93 g/km to 215.90 g/km when ascending from 500 m to 4000 m. These findings underscore the relevance of considering altitude in route planning, especially in mountainous terrains, to optimize performance and environmental sustainability. However, the study also indicated an increase in CO and NOx emissions with altitude, a challenge that highlights the need for integrated strategies addressing both fuel consumption and air quality. Collectively, the results emphasized the complex interplay between altitude, energy efficiency, and vehicular emissions, underscoring the importance of a holistic approach to transportation management, to minimize adverse environmental impacts and promote sustainability.