Resumen
Geopolitical challenges are examples of systemic risks: crossing jurisdictional boundaries, cascading through interconnected systems, defying clear interpretation, and involving deep uncertainties that defy traditional assessment and governance. Current geopolitical risk assessment lacks a consistent foundation, limiting researchers’ ability to build on approaches to examine interconnections, characterise uncertainties, or evaluate interventions. We review risk paradigms in geopolitical literature and find that most consider risk as both consequences and associated uncertainties. Through examples of state-based conflict, geoeconomic confrontation and technological risks, we demonstrate how this approach enables more comprehensive analysis of complex geopolitical challenges, including evaluating background knowledge and stakeholder perspectives. We recommend the IRGC Risk Governance Framework to operationalise this approach, emphasising inclusive knowledge integration, systematic deliberation, and adaptive monitoring for effective geopolitical risk management.