Foresight Scenarios for Graphene and the Mining Sector in Peru toward 2040

This paper examines development pathways for graphene and their implications for Peru’s mining sector toward 2040. The study integrates four strands of evidence: bibliometric and scientometric analyses of publications, patent landscaping of inventive activity, open-access market intelligence on adoption trajectories, and foresight methods-morphological analysis, the Three Horizons framework, and Schwartz axes of uncertainty-to construct scenarios for 2025-2040. Results indicate sustained global growth of graphene research, with consolidation in energy storage, composites, and coatings, alongside expanding patent activity led by East Asian and European institutions. Market projections highlight opportunities in batteries and structural composites but reveal sensitivity to production costs, standards, and supply-chain maturity. A conceptual nexus map links graphene applications to mineral dependencies-graphite, copper, and nickel-exposing potential bottlenecks for Peru. Integrated foresight analysis shows that policy clarity, processing capacity, and sustainable mining practices will determine national value capture. The study contributes a reproducible, evidence-based framework that connects nanomaterial trajectories with mineral strategies through transparent data and explicit assumptions, integrating temporal (Three Horizons) and structural (Schwartz axes) foresight perspectives.