Strategic Foresight of Cybersecurity Threats in Peru Toward 2035: Scenarios and Roadmap Based on Delphi and Backcasting

The accelerated digitalization of the Peruvian economy has expanded opportunities for growth while simultaneously increasing exposure to complex and evolving cyberthreats. Despite recent regulatory and institutional advancements, persistent gaps remain in national cybersecurity governance, infrastructure resilience, identity protection, and public awareness. In response to this challenge, the present study applies a strategic foresight methodology grounded in the Anglo-Saxon School of Foresight to explore plausible cybersecurity futures for Peru toward the year 2035. The methodological design integrates environmental scanning (STEEP-VOC), a two Delphi process, scenario construction using Schwartz's axes, and a backcasting approach to develop a strategic roadmap. A total of eight prospective scenarios were formulated and evaluated based on expert judgment across three criteria: probability, desirability, and governability. The scenario identified as the most viable and desirable-termed Global Digital Fortress-envisions Peru as a regional leader in cybersecurity through the deployment of AI-powered defenses, expanded cyber-insurance coverage, and the full integration of secure digital identities. A strategic pathway toward this target scenario is articulated through a sequenced roadmap covering the 2026-2035 horizon. The results provide actionable insights for institutional decision-making and contribute to the design of resilient and inclusive digital ecosystems in emerging economies.