Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central

Christian Mauricio; Jose Suclupe; Marco Milla; Carlos L. De Castilla; Karim Kuyeng; Rodolfo Rodriguez; Danny Eddy Scipion; Jorge Chau

doi:10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615

Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central

Christian Mauricio, Jose Suclupe, Marco Milla, Carlos L. De Castilla, Karim Kuyeng, Rodolfo Rodriguez, Danny Eddy Scipion, Jorge Chau

Sección de Electricidad y Electrónica

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)	9798350369533
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615
State	Published - 2023
Event	2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023 - Hybrid, Valdivia, Chile Duration: 5 Dec 2023 → 7 Dec 2023

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon
ISSN (Print)	2832-1529
ISSN (Electronic)	2832-1537

Conference

Conference	2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023
Country/Territory	Chile
City	Hybrid, Valdivia
Period	5/12/23 → 7/12/23

Keywords

LSTM
Maximum likelihood
multi-step prediction
OPTUNA
VMD

Access to Document

10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615

Cite this

Mauricio, C., Suclupe, J., Milla, M., De Castilla, C. L., Kuyeng, K., Rodriguez, R., Scipion, D. E., & Chau, J. (2023). Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central. In ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies (Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615

Mauricio, Christian ; Suclupe, Jose ; Milla, Marco et al. / Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central. ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023. (Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon).

@inproceedings{f3c993b141a64e40b489beb1c7b1334f,

title = "Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central",

abstract = "Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.",

keywords = "LSTM, Maximum likelihood, multi-step prediction, OPTUNA, VMD",

author = "Christian Mauricio and Jose Suclupe and Marco Milla and {De Castilla}, {Carlos L.} and Karim Kuyeng and Rodolfo Rodriguez and Scipion, {Danny Eddy} and Jorge Chau",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 IEEE.; 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023 ; Conference date: 05-12-2023 Through 07-12-2023",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon",

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Mauricio, C, Suclupe, J, Milla, M, De Castilla, CL, Kuyeng, K, Rodriguez, R, Scipion, DE & Chau, J 2023, Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central. in ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies. Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023, Hybrid, Valdivia, Chile, 5/12/23. https://doi.org/10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615

Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central. / Mauricio, Christian; Suclupe, Jose; Milla, Marco et al.
ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023. (Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Mauricio, Christian

AU - Suclupe, Jose

AU - Milla, Marco

AU - De Castilla, Carlos L.

AU - Kuyeng, Karim

AU - Rodriguez, Rodolfo

AU - Scipion, Danny Eddy

AU - Chau, Jorge

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.

AB - Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.

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Mauricio C, Suclupe J, Milla M, De Castilla CL, Kuyeng K, Rodriguez R et al. Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central. In ChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2023. (Proceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon). doi: 10.1109/CHILECON60335.2023.10418615

Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central

Abstract

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Conference

Keywords

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