Short-term prediction of wind speed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Peru's coastal north and central

Christian Mauricio, Jose Suclupe, Marco Milla, Carlos L. De Castilla, Karim Kuyeng, Rodolfo Rodriguez, Danny Eddy Scipion, Jorge Chau

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Wind speed prediction in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is crucial for atmospheric and telecommunication studies. This study addresses the challenge of short-term wind speed prediction at altitudes between 80 and 95 km over Peru's north and central coast. First, the maximum likelihood approach accurately imputes missing data, thus ensuring the integrity of the time series. Subsequently, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique decomposes the entire time series into its inherent modal components. Then, each component is processed with the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the Optuna hyperparameter optimizer. This model is capable of two-day forecasts. Finally, the metric used is the root mean square error (RMSE) that presented values between 9m/s and 25 m/s.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationChileCon 2023 - 2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9798350369533
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023
Event2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023 - Hybrid, Valdivia, Chile
Duration: 5 Dec 20237 Dec 2023

Publication series

NameProceedings - IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon
ISSN (Print)2832-1529
ISSN (Electronic)2832-1537

Conference

Conference2023 IEEE CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, ChileCon 2023
Country/TerritoryChile
CityHybrid, Valdivia
Period5/12/237/12/23

Keywords

  • LSTM
  • Maximum likelihood
  • multi-step prediction
  • OPTUNA
  • VMD

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