Determining factors in the unforeseeable uncertainty management in innovation projects

The more innovative a project is, the greater the probability of occurrence of unforeseeable uncertainties. This kind of uncertainty would be realized through the identification of early signs of a change, however for the recognition of these signs is necessary to sensemaking. Thus, this study aims to recognize relevant factors that can block out or facilitate the management of unforeseeable uncertainties. A field survey was conducted based on a questionnaire about the projects that could be considered innovative. From the sample intentionally chosen, only 16 projects met the requirements of the study and they were considered units of analysis. Subsequently, for each project an in-depth interview was applied. The participant was requested to identify at least two unforeseen events, as representative of unforeseeable uncertainties, thus we have obtained 35 unforeseen events, considered unit of analysis embedded. Data analysis was initially qualitative; in addition, a statistical analysis was made through non-parametric tests. The results pointed out determinant block factors, as biases. The results of this analysis suggest incorporating the diagnosis of unforeseeable uncertainty, seeking areas of uncertainty for the project, envisioning as the more appropriate management methodology for each level of uncertainty.