Computational Representation of Social Complexity for Decision-Making: The Case of Climate Change, Migration, and Social Conflict in the Central Andes of Peru

This chapter illustrates how computer simulations can help us foresee critical situations in populations where climate change may cause water scarcity. In particular, we exemplify a city in the central Andes of Peru whose conditions related to deglaciation, urbanization, and population growth may bring water scarcity. The main technique used is agent-based modeling, which will offer the first model of this kind for Peru, which will combine quantitative and qualitative information gathered on-site. The results show possible scenarios of water scarcity leading to massive migration and social conflict, a situation not yet evident as a public problem. This work should be a starting point for national and regional policy makers to produce regulations that minimize the worst scenarios found in this virtual experiment.