TY - JOUR
T1 - A tuned Holt-Winters white-box model for COVID-19 Prediction
AU - Subanar,
AU - Hansun, Seng
AU - Charles, Vincent
AU - Gherman, Tatiana
AU - Indrati, Christiana Rini
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters' additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid or curb the next wave of the outbreak.
AB - The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters' additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid or curb the next wave of the outbreak.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Future wave
KW - Holt-winters additive method
KW - Prediction
KW - White-box model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109551305&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1504/IJMDM.2021.116018
DO - 10.1504/IJMDM.2021.116018
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85109551305
SN - 1462-4621
VL - 20
SP - 241
EP - 262
JO - International Journal of Management and Decision Making
JF - International Journal of Management and Decision Making
IS - 3
ER -
