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Ensayo sobre la agricultura peruana
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1972-12)
A fin de contribuir con el estudio sobre la devaluación peruana de 1967, realiza un análisis del comercio exterior y la agricultura. El estudio revisa el crecimiento de la producción, comercio de azúcar, algodón, arroz, trigo y carne en el siglo veinte; la interrelación entre precios, producción, consumo e inflación y, la importancia de los mercados externos e internos en la selección de cultivos sembrados. To contribute to the study of the 1967 currency devaluation in Peru, this paper reviews the country’s foreign trade and agricultural sector, with an emphasis on output growth, sugar, cotton, rice, wheat and beef trade in the 20th century, the relationship between prices, output, consumer demand and inflation, and finally the importance of external and internal markets in the election of crops.
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The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2018-12)
We show that Peru’s chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s was the result of the need for inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of the policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyperstagflation of 1987–1990.
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Elementos para un programa de estabilización
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1989-07)
El objeto de este trabajo es el de modelar comportamientos de un limitado grupo de variables, relevantes en una aproximación agregada a un fenómeno de extremo deterioro en la evolución de precios y cantidades en el corto plazo. Esto se hace con el objeto de inferir lineamientos básicos para el diseño de un programa de estabilización: este trabajo no pretende construir un modelo de programación financiera desagregado y detallado para la elaboración de políticas macro económicas y sectoriales específicas. The purpose of this paper is to model the behavior of a limited number of variables of relevance to provide an aggregate approach to the extreme degradation of prices and quantities in the short term. The purpose of this analysis is to draw up basic guidelines for designing a stabilization program, though not to build a broken down and detailed financial programming model to design specific macroeconomic and sector policies.
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