Producción científica

Permanent URI for this communityhttps://cris.pucp.edu.pe/handle/123456789/20173

Browse

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 2780

Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
How to develop the capital market?: make countries fitness
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025-02)
This paper examines the relationship between the competitiveness of a country’s productive system and the development of its capital markets. Competitiveness is measured using the Economic Fitness Index (EFI), which assess a country’s ability to produce diversified and complex goods. Analyzing panel data from 98 countries (1997–2022), the study finds a significant positive relationship between productive complexity and capital market development, even when controlling for macroeconomic stability, institutional quality, and banking development. The findings suggest that productive complexity enhances the demand for and supply of financial instruments, fostering deeper capital markets. Robustness checks using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) confirm these results, underscoring the role of economic sophistication in financial market development.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Regime-Switching, Stochastic Volatility, Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-10)
Following Chan and Eisenstat (2018a), we use a family of regime-switching models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV) to analyze the evolution of fiscal shocks impacts on Peru's economic growth from 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. Key findings include: (i) identification of two distinct economic regimes with different macroeconomic fundamentals tied to improvements in fiscal and monetary policy; (ii) enhanced model fi with the inclusion of stochastic volatility; (iii) a positive trend in the size of spending multipliers, though they remain below unity; (iv) during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, capital expenditure shocks mitigated the decline in economic growth by 2 percentage points, highlighting their counter-cyclical potential. These findings are corroborated by robustness checks, which include changes in priors, variable reordering, adjustments in external and demand variables, and extending the sample to 2022Q4 to encompass the COVID-19 crisis.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Modeling the trend, persistence, and volatility of inflation in Pacific Alliance countries: an empirical application using a model with inflation bands
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-02)
This paper estimates and analyzes the dynamics of trend inflation, as well as the persistence and volatility of the inflation gap in the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). For this purpose, the econometric approach is based on methodologies proposed by Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan et al. (2013). Among these, the AR-Trend-Bound model considers the implications of inflation targeting in estimating the unobserved components of inflation. The results indicate that this model effectively allocates most of the permanent component to trend inflation. Additionally, a decreasing trend in inflation in the 1990s, stabilization in the first two decades of the 21st century, and a growing trend inflation following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are observed in all four countries. The low levels of inflation gap persistence prior to the pandemic reflect the effectiveness of central banks in maintaining inflation close to its trend level. Finally, the volatility of the inflation gap identifies the “Great Moderation” of inflation, with increases in volatility during the pandemic reaching levels similar to those estimated in the 1990s.
1
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-08)
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR- SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coe cients change more gradually than VAR coe cients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the In ation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and in ation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, in ation, and the interest rate, respectively; and under the IT regime, all these percentages shrink to 1-2%. The sensitivity analysis con rms the robustness of the main results across various prior speci cations, measures of external and domestic variables, and recursive identi cations. In general, the results show that MP has contributed to diminishing macroeconomic volatility in Peru.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
The role of technology extension and transfer in firms’ innovation and productivity in Peru
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025)
This study examines how technology extension and transfer services (TETS) drive firm-level innovation and productivity. Since research and development (R&D) investments are subject to market failure, engaging with external agents enables firms to innovate at lower risk and cost. Using data from Peru’s National Innovation Survey (ENI), we apply the Crépon, Duguet, and Mairesse (CDM) model alongside propensity score matching (PSM) to enhance the reliability of our results. Additionally, we employ the generalized propensity score (GPS) method to analyze the sensitivity of innovation and sales outcomes to varying investment levels. The findings confirm that investment in training and external R&D significantly enhances innovation, thereby boosting labor productivity. However, this relationship is nonlinear, suggesting the presence of investment thresholds required to maximize impact.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
The effects of social pensions on mortality among the extreme poor elderly
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-09)
We study the effects of Peru’s social pension programme Pension 65 on mortality. The programme provides pensions to people aged 65 and older who do not have other pensions and are extreme poor. The analysis relies on survey data obtained at the baseline and matched to mortality records of 2012-2019. We exploit the discontinuity around the welfare index used by the programme to determine eligibility, and estimate intention-totreat effects. We find that after seven years, the programme could reduce mortality among eligible people by about 11.4 percentage points, implying about one year more in life expectancy.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Perceptions of own social class and local affluence: Effects on preferences for redistribution
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025-11)
We conducted an online survey experiment in Lima to study how perceptions of social class shape support for economic redistribution. Participants were randomly informed about either their actual socio-economic status (SES) or the true share of affluent households in their district. Respondents substantially overestimated their own SES and, to a lesser extent, the prevalence of affluent households. Correctingthese misperceptions generally increased support for redistribution, with no effect on a wealth-tax proposal. Effects were especially strong when respondents had misjudged their SES by two or more levels: even those predisposed against redistribution (e.g., right-leaning, individualistic, or sceptical of government) increased their support. Similar patterns also emerged when correcting beliefs about the local distribution of SES.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Public Debt Dynamics and Sustainability: A Framework for Analysis
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento Académico de Economía, 2024-12)
This paper presents a macro-fiscal model for examining the public sector primary surplus and the dynamics and sustainability of public debt in closed and open economies. The model simulates how changes in the primary surplus affect public debt, highlighting key differences between these economic contexts. Notably, open economies can finance fiscal deficits with foreign currency-denominated debt, introducing additional sources of instability in public debt dynamics. The analysis demonstrates how a permanent reduction in the primary surplus undermines public debt sustainability, with outcomes shaped by economic conditions and the features of open and closed economies. Furthermore, it confirms that delays in implementing fiscal adjustments following a destabilizing shock result in increasingly severe corrective measures over time.
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-01)
This study assesses the evolving impact of fiscal policy on Peru’s economic activity in 1993Q4-2018Q2 using unrestricted and restricted TVP-VAR-SV models according to the approach proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018a). The results indicate that SV inclusion is essential, although there is no clear evidence of time-varying parameters according to two Bayesian selection criteria. Shocks from current and capital spending growth have positive effects on GDP growth (0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in response to a 1% increase in each variable); and play important roles in the forecast error variance decomposition (23% and 45%, respectively) and historical decompositon (14% and 25%, respectively). The impact of fiscal income shocks is weak throughout the period of the study. The current and capital spending multipliers grow in 1995Q1-2007Q4, but subsequently show lower values in 2008Q1-2018Q2. The study also finds that external shocks have a strong and positive impact on fiscal income growth (0.4%). Finally, the research includes multiple robustness exercises, which show few changes relative to the results obtained using the baseline model.
2
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01)
We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercises

Producción científica

Browse

Filters

Settings

Sort By

Results per page

Search Results