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Item type:Publication, Hiperinflación y política económica en el Perú: una interpretación(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1989-07)Intenta analizar los efectos de la política económica vigente sobre al comportamiento actual de la economía peruana a través de un modelo maeroeconómico de corto plazo con dos bienes (transable y no transable) y dos activas (dinero nacional y dinero extranjero). Sólo con una palabra puede describirse este comportamiento: hiperinflación. An attempt to review the impact of present economic policy on the ongoing behavior of Peru’s economy using a short term macroeconomic model for two goods (tradable and non tradable) and two assets (local currency and foreign currency). This behavior can be described in one word: hyperinflation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1997)The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations.The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.1 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Una propuesta de reforma monetaria para acabar con la Hiperinflación(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1990)A proposal to address the imperative need to stop hyperinflation ravaging Peru’s economy since September 1988. Only two ways to address this issue have been proposed according to the author. The first one is correcting relative prices through an inflation shock that would increase the nominal exchange rate and real public prices. The other option is to stop hyperinflation through monetary reform. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Intervención cambiaria y política monetaria en el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-04)La intervención del banco central en el mercado cambiario tiene un carácter sistemático en el Perú. El banco rema contra de la corriente: compra o acumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio baja y vende o desacumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio sube.En este artículo presentamos un modelo donde la intervención cambiaria ocupa un lugar central. Es un modelo Mundell-Fleming con una ecuación de balanza de pagos y una regla de intervención cambiaria del banco central, donde tanto el tipo de cambio como las reservas de divisas son variables endógenas. El modelo se ha construido para el estudio de una economía como la peruana, exportadora de materias primas, con libre movilidad de capitales, parcialmente dolarizada, y con un banco central que fija la tasa de interés y mantiene un régimen de flexibilidad limitada del tipo de cambio.El modelo se utiliza para simular los efectos de una caída del precio internacional de la materia prima de exportación y para discutir las opciones de política macroeconómica disponibles. Una conclusión importante es que el volumen de reservas internacionales con que cuenta el banco central al momento del choque externo es decisivo. Sin reservas de divisas, un choque externo adverso obliga al banco central, en la práctica, a sacrificar uno de sus dos objetivos (estabilidad de precios y pleno empleo) en aras del otro. The central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market has a systematic character in Peru. The central bank uses an exchange rate sterilized intervention rule that leans against the wind. The central bank sells dollars when the exchange rate rises and buys dollars when the exchange rate falls.In this paper, we present a Mundell-Fleming model, which includes a balance of payments equation and a foreign exchange sterilized intervention rule. The exchange rate and international reserves are endogenous variables. This model reproduces the essential features of the Peruvian economy: small, open, partially dollarized, exporter of raw materials and with a central bank that has two policy instruments, a short-term interest rate, and a sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market. We simulate the effects of a fall in international commodity prices and discuss available macroeconomic policy options. Without international reserves, an adverse external shock forces the central bank, in practice, to sacrifice one of its two objectives (price stability and full employment) for the sake of fulfilling the other objective. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Las vacas flacas en la economía peruana(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-08)La tasa de crecimiento del PBI no primario cayó a un 3.6% en 2014 y a un 2.4% en 2015, cifras muy por debajo del 7.3% promedio anual registrado durante la década previa; para 2016, se proyecta que la economía urbana tendrá un crecimiento igualmente bajo del 2.8% anual. En la historia macroeconómica del Perú, las épocas de vacas gordas, es decir, los auges más o menos prolongados, son también épocas de precios altos de las materias primas que exportamos; y las épocas de vacas flacas, es decir, las recesiones más o menos intensas donde decrece la actividad económica, son épocas de precios bajos de estas materias primas. Este texto describe el choque externo adverso sufrido por la economía peruana y su impacto recesivo e inflacionario durante 2014-15; analiza las políticas monetarias y fiscales aplicadas en respuesta al choque externo, y concluye listando los retos macroeconómicos del nuevo gobierno de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. The growth rate of “non-primary GDP” (Peru´s urban economy) dropped to 3.6% in 2014 and to 2.4% in 2015, far below the annual average of 7.3% recorded over the previous decade; moreover, an equally low growth rate of 2.8% per year is projected in 2016. In the macroeconomic history of Peru, the times of plenty —that is, the more or less prolonged booms— are also times of high prices of the commodities that the country exports; meanwhile, the lean times —that is, the more or less intense recessions in which economic activity slows down— are times of low commodity prices. This article describes the negative external shock undergone by the Peruvian economy and its recessionary and inflationary effects over 2014-15; analyzes the fiscal and monetary policies applied in response to the external shock, and concludes by outlining the macroeconomic challenges faced by the new government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Los dos canales de transmisión de la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)The purpose of this paper is to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under an institutional framework characterized by a dollarized banking system, a flexible exchange rate and free capital movements. The main result of this study is that a restrictive monetary policy can reactivate the economy if the share of their private debt in dollars is greater. Since a restrictive monetary policy increases the domestic interest rate and appreciates the exchange rate, the real burden of private debt can be reduced, and to increase the private expensive. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Flujos de capital, política monetaria y equilibrio externo(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)Unlike what happenned in most Latin American economies after the Mexican crisis,the Peruvian trade deficit kept on growing during 1995, in spite of the application ofrestrictive fiscal and monetary policies. In this paper, a model with free capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and a dollarized banking system is used to show a rather unusual result: that a restrictive monetary policy worsens the commercial deficit. In this institutional framework, capital controls are needed for the Central Bank to be able to regulate the total supply of domestic credit, which in time is a required condition for a restrictive monetary policy to improve the trade balance.1 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Sobre el retraso cambiario y la repatriación de capitales en una economía dolarizada(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1993)Two basic positions to explain the exchange lag during the Fujimori administration are presented here. The first one holds such lag was caused by a restrictive monetary policy. The second position attributes the lag to the flow of capitals originating in low US interest rates. This paper compares both hypotheses and proposes a model to determine the nominal exchange rate and two domestic interest rates, one in the domestic currency and another one in foreign currency, assuming imperfect capital mobility and the banking system’s dollarization. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Desinflación ortodoxa y retraso cambiario en el Perú : un modelo Keynesiano(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1992)An attempt to explain using a short term dinamic macromodel devaluation and inflation rates, as well as changes in level of activity, this paper posits the exchange rate lag is an organic consequence of the economic stabilization policy enacted in the first 18 months of the Fujimori administration. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choques externos y política monetaria(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2008)One goal of this paper is to discussing the macroeconomic impact that an internacional commodity prices boom has in a small open economy under perfect capital mobility. A Mundell-Fleming model with some adaptations is used for the analysis of this real external shock. There are two effects: the monetary one that is a recessionary impulse, and the one that increases aggregate demand. Also the macroeconomic impact of a real external shock is compared with the effect of a financial external shock (changes in the external rate of interest), in a dollarized economy with a floating exchange rate. The other goal of this paper is to show that central bank sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market can be an effective policy response to copy with real o financial external shocks. The macroecomic impact of external shocks depends upon the economic structure, the monetary and fiscal policy mix, and the exchange rate regime.
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