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Hiperinflación y política económica en el Perú: una interpretación
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1989-07)
Intenta analizar los efectos de la política económica vigente sobre al comportamiento actual de la economía peruana a través de un modelo maeroeconómico de corto plazo con dos bienes (transable y no transable) y dos activas (dinero nacional y dinero extranjero). Sólo con una palabra puede describirse este comportamiento: hiperinflación. An attempt to review the impact of present economic policy on the ongoing behavior of Peru’s economy using a short term macroeconomic model for two goods (tradable and non tradable) and two assets (local currency and foreign currency). This behavior can be described in one word: hyperinflation.
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Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1997)
The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations.The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.
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Una propuesta de reforma monetaria para acabar con la Hiperinflación
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1990)
A proposal to address the imperative need to stop hyperinflation ravaging Peru’s economy since September 1988. Only two ways to address this issue have been proposed according to the author. The first one is correcting relative prices through an inflation shock that would increase the nominal exchange rate and real public prices. The other option is to stop hyperinflation through monetary reform.
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Los dos canales de transmisión de la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
The purpose of this paper is to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under an institutional framework characterized by a dollarized banking system, a flexible exchange rate and free capital movements. The main result of this study is that a restrictive monetary policy can reactivate the economy if the share of their private debt in dollars is greater. Since a restrictive monetary policy increases the domestic interest rate and appreciates the exchange rate, the real burden of private debt can be reduced, and to increase the private expensive.
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Flujos de capital, política monetaria y equilibrio externo
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)
Unlike what happenned in most Latin American economies after the Mexican crisis,the Peruvian trade deficit kept on growing during 1995, in spite of the application ofrestrictive fiscal and monetary policies. In this paper, a model with free capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and a dollarized banking system is used to show a rather unusual result: that a restrictive monetary policy worsens the commercial deficit. In this institutional framework, capital controls are needed for the Central Bank to be able to regulate the total supply of domestic credit, which in time is a required condition for a restrictive monetary policy to improve the trade balance.
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Sobre el retraso cambiario y la repatriación de capitales en una economía dolarizada
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1993)
Two basic positions to explain the exchange lag during the Fujimori administration are presented here. The first one holds such lag was caused by a restrictive monetary policy. The second position attributes the lag to the flow of capitals originating in low US interest rates. This paper compares both hypotheses and proposes a model to determine the nominal exchange rate and two domestic interest rates, one in the domestic currency and another one in foreign currency, assuming imperfect capital mobility and the banking system’s dollarization.
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Desinflación ortodoxa y retraso cambiario en el Perú : un modelo Keynesiano
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1992)
An attempt to explain using a short term dinamic macromodel devaluation and inflation rates, as well as changes in level of activity, this paper posits the exchange rate lag is an organic consequence of the economic stabilization policy enacted in the first 18 months of the Fujimori administration.
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Estabilización y deuda externa : experiencia y perspectivas
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 1995)
El objetivo de este texto es realizar una evaluación de esta experiencia de laboratorio a partir de las conexiones existentes entre la estabilización macroeconómica y la "reinserción en la comunidad financiera internacional" o, en otros términos, a partir de las relaciones entre el programa antinflacionario ortodoxo y la reanudación de los pagos por deuda externa a los acreedores oficiales y multilaterales.

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