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Competitividad, rendimientos crecientes y comercio intra-industrial en la manufactura peruana, 1970-1995
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)
This essay pretends to show, on the one hand, that the gains of competition are concentrated only on industrial branches with statistically significant increasing returns to scale and, on the other hand, that the significance of intra-industrial trade has been reduced during the last years. The empirical test is done by the use of a model which permits identify the kind of returns to scale existent in each of the 32 industrial branches of the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the econometrics estimation of the model makes it possible to test the importance of the demand factors to explain the trend and the dynamics of growth and capital accumulation in the manufacturing sector.
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Indicadores líderes, redes neuronales y predicción de corto plazo
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2002)
This paper shows a procedure to construct a short run predictor for the GDP. We use the Baxter & King filter to decompose the monthly GDP on its three components: seasonal, business cycle and long-run trend. Furthermore we estimate and forecast the business cycle using a set of leading economic variables. We propose that the complicated relationships among this variables and the business cycle are well captured by a non linear artificial neural network model. The other components are estimated using standard econometric techniques. Finally, the three components are added to obtain an indicator for the future behavior of the GDP. The prediction shows an acceptable level of reliability, so the index can be used to take decisions in the private or public sector. The main advantage of the index is its faster availability relative to the official statistics.
1
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El desempeño de la industria peruana 1950-1995: del proteccionismo a la restauración liberal
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)
This essay is concerned with the performance of Peruvian manufacturing industry and manufacturing trade, during the 1950-1996 period. This period comprehends the years of import substitution industrialization, the long economic stagnation of 1976-1990, and the recent years of trade liberalization and economic deregulation. The nature of import substitution is evaluated and, at the same time, an explanation of its limits and declination is tried in order to understand the long economic stagnation of 1976-1990. Finally, this essay puts special emphasis on the differences of the manufacturing industry performance during the context of trade liberalization, and the boom and declination of import substitution. The effects of liberal reforms on the manufacturing trade and on the competitiveness of Peruvian industry are analyzed with particular attention, both from the demand and input cost sides.
1
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Competitividad en la industria manufacturera peruana, 1985-1995
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)
This paper is concerned with competition in the peruvian manufacturing industry. A simple model of competition is estimated in order to evaluate the influence of productivity changes and relative labor costs. With this purpose an index of competition was constructed for 32 industrial branches, with export and import data, following the revealed comparative advantages methodology. The period of analysis goes from 1985 to 1995. The labor costs are measured in current dollars. Hence, the exchange rate effects on the competitiveness of the industrial branches are taken into account by the labor cost variable. The model also includes an index of capacity utilization in order to estimate the net effects of productivity and labor cost on the industrial competitiveness. One of the most striking results of this research is that only 8 industrial branches out of 32 considered, won competitiveness during 1985-1995. The trade liberalization and the exchange rate overvaluation are the main responsible for the massive lost of industrial competitiveness during 1991-1995.
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