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Item type:Publication, Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh(Public Library of Science, 2024-03-01)Bangladesh is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Internal migration is often presented as a response to environmental degradation. Here, using a people-centred perspective, we explore the complexity of the links between climate-induced change, environmental degradation caused by waterlogging and seasonal rural migration. We used an inductive qualitative approach in social sciences, conducting fourteen semi-directed interviews and six focus group discussions in March-April 2022. We related those results to a rainfall analysis on CHIRPS data for 1981-2021and we represented interactions and feedback between changes and livelihoods in a model. A complex picture of the situation is emerging, showing the interweaving effects of non-climatic and climatic changes, their interplay at different scales, their cumulative effects, the interactions between livelihood types and feedback between social and natural systems. Most of the climate-induced changes gradually become noticeable over the past 25 years. Climate data confirm these changes in recent decades, with July being wetter and January being dryer. Villagers reported waterlogging as the most significant change in their community, pointing to its multiple causes, originating in non-local and local, non-climatic anthropic changes, exacerbated by shrimp farm enclosures and worsened by climate-induced changes such as heavier rains, wetter monsoons and cyclones. Tiger prawn farms, reported as a lucrative and local adaptation to waterlogging and salinisation for the ones who can afford it, worsen the situation for the less wealthy, causing waterlogging and salinisation of the adjacent agricultural lands and buildings, the disappearance of traditional fishing and a reduction of the local job market. In addition, erratic rain patterns, droughts and cyclones affect local production and labour markets. COVID-19 lockdowns, by impacting markets and mobilities, further aggravated the situation. Inequality has increased as the range of adaptations of the less wealthy appears limited in this context of multiple crises. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features(Nature Research, 2024-12-01)In 2023 Amazonia experienced both historical drought and warm conditions. On October 26th 2023 the water levels at the port of Manaus reached its lowest record since 1902 (12.70 m). In this region, October monthly maximum and minimum temperature anomalies also surpassed previous record values registered in 2015 (+ 3 °C above the normal considering the 1981–2020 average). Here we show that this historical dry and warm situation in Amazonia is associated with two main atmospheric mechanisms: (i) the November 2022–February 2023 southern anomaly of vertical integrated moisture flux (VIMF), related to VIMF divergence and extreme rainfall deficit over southwestern Amazonia, and (ii) the June–August 2023 downward motion over northern Amazonia related to extreme rainfall deficit and warm conditions over this region. Anomalies of both atmospheric mechanisms reached record values during this event. The first mechanism is significantly correlated to negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (November–February La Niña events). The second mechanism is significantly correlated to positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, related to the impacts of June–September El Niño on the Walker Circulation. While previous extreme droughts were linked to El Niño (warmer North Tropical Atlantic SST) during the austral summer (winter and spring), the transition from La Niña 2022–23 to El Niño 2023 appears to be a key climatic driver in this record-breaking dry and warm situation, combined to a widespread anomalous warming over the worldwide ocean.