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Hiperinflación y política económica en el Perú: una interpretación
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1989-07)
Intenta analizar los efectos de la política económica vigente sobre al comportamiento actual de la economía peruana a través de un modelo maeroeconómico de corto plazo con dos bienes (transable y no transable) y dos activas (dinero nacional y dinero extranjero). Sólo con una palabra puede describirse este comportamiento: hiperinflación. An attempt to review the impact of present economic policy on the ongoing behavior of Peru’s economy using a short term macroeconomic model for two goods (tradable and non tradable) and two assets (local currency and foreign currency). This behavior can be described in one word: hyperinflation.
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Sobre la hiperinflación peruana
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1989)
El propósito de este artículo es contar la historia de las hiperinflaciones; algunas ideas-fuerza surgidas a partir de la literatura consultada, buscan capturar las peculiaridades de la hiperinflación peruana y contar una historia no-monetarista de ella.
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Política monetaria en una economía de mercado dolarizada: un modelo para el Perú
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1991)
A model to discuss the impact of moneray policy on the free exchange rate, the lending interest rate and level of economic activity. This is a version of the Tobin model (Tobin and Braga, 1980) for short term macroeconomic analysis of a small open economy with a floating exchange rate. However, the bonds and stock markets were removed from the model as well as international capital flows. Instead, loans and deposits markets were added to the model, both of which are nevertheless examined from the Tobian perspective (Tobin 1968, 1969)
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El Perú desde 1990 : El fín de la restricción externa?
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1993)
By focusing on the major foreign imbalances created by the Fujimori administration’s economic program, this paper presents the circumstances that explain why ironically,such imbalances did not happen together with a significant increase in foreign currency reserves. Two alternative explanations for the exchange rate lag are given, and the implications of dollarization for the banking system. It is suggested that Peru’s “temporary withdrawal” from the Andean Group is nothing but a demostration of the country’s degrading foreign accounts. Finally, the paper reviews the consequences of the way economic opening was conducted in Peru.
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Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1997)
The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations.The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.
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Una propuesta de reforma monetaria para acabar con la Hiperinflación
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1990)
A proposal to address the imperative need to stop hyperinflation ravaging Peru’s economy since September 1988. Only two ways to address this issue have been proposed according to the author. The first one is correcting relative prices through an inflation shock that would increase the nominal exchange rate and real public prices. The other option is to stop hyperinflation through monetary reform.
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Deuda vs. crecimiento : un dilema político
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1987)
Discute el sustrato macroeconómico del dilema político del pago, o no, de la deuda externa peruana, tal como se presenta en la economía peruana, bajo el supuesto que hace equivalente mantener el favor del electorado y elevar el nivel de la actividad económica.
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Inflation Targeting in Peru: The Reasons for the Success
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2014)
The Peruvian central bank took two major decisions in the early 2000s: implementing an inflation target system and accumulating sufficient foreign-exchange reserves. These two decisions have allowed the central bank to preserve macroeconomic stability in favorable or unfavorable international environments. The use and impact of the main monetary policy instruments over the period 2002-2013 is discussed; namely, the short term interest rate set by the central bank or reference interest rate, the reserve requirement ratio in local and foreign currencies and, finally, sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market. The process of bank credit (de)dollarization is also reviewed.
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Intervención cambiaria y política monetaria en el Perú
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-04)
La intervención del banco central en el mercado cambiario tiene un carácter sistemático en el Perú. El banco rema contra de la corriente: compra o acumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio baja y vende o desacumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio sube.En este artículo presentamos un modelo donde la intervención cambiaria ocupa un lugar central. Es un modelo Mundell-Fleming con una ecuación de balanza de pagos y una regla de intervención cambiaria del banco central, donde tanto el tipo de cambio como las reservas de divisas son variables endógenas. El modelo se ha construido para el estudio de una economía como la peruana, exportadora de materias primas, con libre movilidad de capitales, parcialmente dolarizada, y con un banco central que fija la tasa de interés y mantiene un régimen de flexibilidad limitada del tipo de cambio.El modelo se utiliza para simular los efectos de una caída del precio internacional de la materia prima de exportación y para discutir las opciones de política macroeconómica disponibles. Una conclusión importante es que el volumen de reservas internacionales con que cuenta el banco central al momento del choque externo es decisivo. Sin reservas de divisas, un choque externo adverso obliga al banco central, en la práctica, a sacrificar uno de sus dos objetivos (estabilidad de precios y pleno empleo) en aras del otro. The central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market has a systematic character in Peru. The central bank uses an exchange rate sterilized intervention rule that leans against the wind. The central bank sells dollars when the exchange rate rises and buys dollars when the exchange rate falls.In this paper, we present a Mundell-Fleming model, which includes a balance of payments equation and a foreign exchange sterilized intervention rule. The exchange rate and international reserves are endogenous variables. This model reproduces the essential features of the Peruvian economy: small, open, partially dollarized, exporter of raw materials and with a central bank that has two policy instruments, a short-term interest rate, and a sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market. We simulate the effects of a fall in international commodity prices and discuss available macroeconomic policy options. Without international reserves, an adverse external shock forces the central bank, in practice, to sacrifice one of its two objectives (price stability and full employment) for the sake of fulfilling the other objective.
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Las vacas flacas en la economía peruana
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-08)
La tasa de crecimiento del PBI no primario cayó a un 3.6% en 2014 y a un 2.4% en 2015, cifras muy por debajo del 7.3% promedio anual registrado durante la década previa; para 2016, se proyecta que la economía urbana tendrá un crecimiento igualmente bajo del 2.8% anual. En la historia macroeconómica del Perú, las épocas de vacas gordas, es decir, los auges más o menos prolongados, son también épocas de precios altos de las materias primas que exportamos; y las épocas de vacas flacas, es decir, las recesiones más o menos intensas donde decrece la actividad económica, son épocas de precios bajos de estas materias primas. Este texto describe el choque externo adverso sufrido por la economía peruana y su impacto recesivo e inflacionario durante 2014-15; analiza las políticas monetarias y fiscales aplicadas en respuesta al choque externo, y concluye listando los retos macroeconómicos del nuevo gobierno de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. The growth rate of “non-primary GDP” (Peru´s urban economy) dropped to 3.6% in 2014 and to 2.4% in 2015, far below the annual average of 7.3% recorded over the previous decade; moreover, an equally low growth rate of 2.8% per year is projected in 2016. In the macroeconomic history of Peru, the times of plenty —that is, the more or less prolonged booms— are also times of high prices of the commodities that the country exports; meanwhile, the lean times —that is, the more or less intense recessions in which economic activity slows down— are times of low commodity prices. This article describes the negative external shock undergone by the Peruvian economy and its recessionary and inflationary effects over 2014-15; analyzes the fiscal and monetary policies applied in response to the external shock, and concludes by outlining the macroeconomic challenges faced by the new government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

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